AUTHOR=Briones Jamaica , Wang Yi , Prawjaeng Juthamas , Wee Hwee Lin , Kairu Angela , Orangi Stacey , Barasa Edwine , Teerawattananon Yot 

TITLE=A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand

JOURNAL=International Journal of Public Health

VOLUME=Volume 67 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.ssph-journal.org/journals/international-journal-of-public-health/articles/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854

DOI=10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854

ISSN=1661-8564

ABSTRACT=Objective
We estimated the economic impact of border closure and social distancing, by estimating the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. 
Methods
A retrospective secondary data analysis was conducted. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, we employed ordinary least squares (OLS) to examine the relationship between GDP and stock market index. We examined impact of NPI on stock market index through autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) models. Multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models, we derived change in GDP due to NPIs.
Results
An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, and both social distancing and border closure have a negative correlation with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the GDP decline. For Thailand, border closure had a greater decline in GDP compared with social distancing, with Kenya also exhibiting same trends; opposite is observed in Singapore. 
Conclusion
We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach suggests may be applicable in other settings.