The Fourth Winter of the Pandemic—What Have We Learned?
The coming winter is the fourth since the COVID-19 pandemic started in late 2019. The rapidity with which novel variants of the virus are emerging and eroding the effectiveness of established tools for the detection, prevention, and treatment of the illness poses an ongoing challenge to healthcare systems, on top of emerging threats such as the MPVX and polio as well as preparations for seasonal influenza, all within the context of pandemic fatigue both for the general public and health workforce [1]. At the same time, policymakers worldwide now possess the experience necessary to stage effective and equitable responses to the pandemic. In this statement, we reflect on the key lessons for managing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in the context of multiple intersecting global threats [2].
The Pandemic Response Should Prioritize Equity
The first lesson is that this is an inequitable pandemic. Most outcomes relevant to COVID-19 follow a social gradient, ranging from contracting the disease [3], experiencing a severe course of the disease [4] and death [5], vaccine hesitancy [6] and not having received a full course of vaccination [7], or experiencing economic hardship [8] and poorer mental health as a result of the pandemic [9]. Any response, therefore, necessitates a strong consideration of equity effects and entails a combination of tailored information dissemination, vaccination campaigns targeted at different levels of the social hierarchy, providing adequate ventilation, encouraging wearing masks in public places like on public transport [10], ensuring that frequent testing and quarantining are financially accessible for all, and welfare policies ameliorating social and economic deprivation.
Vaccines are Necessary But Not Sufficient
The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has been a turning point in the pandemic and has resulted in fewer new infections, hospital admissions, and severe courses of disease [11]. However, vaccination alone is not sufficient to prepare for the months ahead. Large sections of the population—often those at the bottom of the social hierarchy—will likely remain unvaccinated in light of their vaccine hesitancy and distrust of the government [6, 7, 12]. Globally, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines remains unequal as wealthy nations stockpile the vaccine at the expense of easy access in lower- and middle-income countries; this not only hinders the effective response in those countries but also perpetuates the worldwide risk of emergent variants [13–17]. In absence of other preventive strategies, the rapid emergence of novel variants in combination with waning immunity after vaccination [18], necessitates the constant development and rollout of booster doses in the absence of other preventive strategies, which is not sustainable over the long term.
Transparent Evidence-Informed Decision-Making Engenders Trust
An effective response to the pandemic fundamentally requires a relationship of trust and cooperation between governments and their citizens. This relationship is greatly enhanced if key stakeholders and the public are engaged in a fair process for decision-making involving publicity, relevance, revisability, and enforcement [10]. Given the evidence available on the likely effects of various non-pharmacological interventions on the course of the pandemic [19–21] and the availability of reflections on how best to incorporate scientific evidence in political decision-making during the pandemic [22–24], this moment presents an opportunity for governments to restore much-needed confidence in their ability to handle the pandemic and act decisively to protect the public’s health.
Effective Surveillance is the Key to an Effective Response
Throughout the pandemic, COVID-19 surveillance systems played a key role in shaping effective responses to the pandemic [25]. Nevertheless, differences between countries, regions, and over time in how COVID-19 cases are defined, tested for, and reported have made the consistent and reliable tracking of the COVID-19 burden challenging [26–28]. To support an effective public health response going into the winter, countries will need to do more and more varied surveillance. Various techniques and tactics are available to provide insight into the prevalence of COVID-19 in a population [29], including wastewater surveillance [30]. There is also an ongoing need for genomic surveillance to detect emerging viral variants [31], as well as for monitoring for COVID-19 in healthcare and other occupational settings [32], inequalities in COVID-19 burden between ethnic groups [33], and the prevalence of long COVID [34]. The ECDC and WHO Europe suggest a good standard for surveillance of respiratory viruses—including COVID-19—consists of representative sentinel surveillance systems in primary and secondary care, the targeted surveillance of vulnerable groups, gathering data on illness severity such as hospitalisations, admissions to ICU, and mortality, and genomic monitoring; the data gathered should be sufficiently disaggregated to accurately follow virus- and variant-specific disease incidence by severity, age, and place [35]. Investing in sustainable surveillance systems will not only help us with COVID-19 but also enable effective public health responses to other emerging health threats.
The COVID-19 Pandemic Will Not be Fought in Isolation
An effective response to COVID-19 this winter will be critical to preserve the capacities of healthcare and public health institutions as they fend off other threats. Overlapping with the COVID -19 pandemic is the global circulation of MPVX [36], and experts warn of a resurgent seasonal influenza after 2 years suppression by public health measures and travel restrictions [37]. The context is also made more challenging by rising geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation driving up costs of living, extreme weather conditions including heatwaves and floods, and other threats [2]. COVID-19 pandemic is still here, yet we learned many lessons. We must take a balanced, sustainable, and holistic perspective to guide us in our interventions [2]. This requires collaboration and solidarity, both within and between countries.
Statements
Author’s Note
The Association of Schools of Public Health in the European Region (ASPHER) is the key independent European organization dedicated to improving and protecting public health by strengthening education and training of public health professionals for practice and research. www.aspher.org.
Author Contributions
RH prepared the first draft. ND and JM contributed extensively to further drafts. All authors made substantial contributions to the conception of the work and to the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work; and revising it critically for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be published; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.
Conflict of Interest
JM is an elected, unpaid official of ASPHER, a membership organisation. ND and RH are unpaid in their work for ASPHER. LL and RO are paid officials of ASPHER.
The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
References
1
Fernandes Q Inchakalody VP Merhi M Mestiri S Taib N Moustafa Abo El-Ella D et al Emerging COVID-19 Variants and Their Impact on SARS-CoV-2 Diagnosis, Therapeutics and Vaccines. Ann Med (2022) 54(1):524–40. 10.1080/07853890.2022.2031274
2
Middleton J Davidovitch N Barros H Lopes H Martin-Moreno JM Mason-Jones AJ et al ASPHER Statement: Planning for Winter 2022-23. Public health Rev. (2022) 43:1605394. 10.3389/phrs.2022.1605394
3
Baena-Díez JM Barroso M Cordeiro-Coelho SI Díaz JL Grau M . Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak by Income: Hitting Hardest the Most Deprived. J Public Health (2020) 42(4):698–703. 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa136
4
Gustafsson PE San Sebastian M Fonseca-Rodriguez O Fors Connolly AM . Inequitable Impact of Infection: Social Gradients in Severe COVID-19 Outcomes Among All Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Cases during the First Pandemic Wave in Sweden. J Epidemiol Community Health (2022) 76(3):261–7. 10.1136/jech-2021-216778
5
Woodward M Peters SAE Harris K . Social Deprivation as a Risk Factor for COVID-19 Mortality Among Women and Men in the UK Biobank: Nature of Risk and Context Suggests that Social Interventions Are Essential to Mitigate the Effects of Future Pandemics. J Epidemiol Community Health (2021) 75(11):1050–5. 10.1136/jech-2020-215810
6
Bajos N Spire A Silberzan L EPICOV study group. The Social Specificities of Hostility toward Vaccination against Covid-19 in France. PLoS ONE (2022) 17(1):e0262192. 10.1371/journal.pone.0262192
7
Saban M Myers V Ben-Shetrit S Wilf-Miron R . Socioeconomic Gradient in COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Israel. Int J Equity Health (2021) 20(1):242. 10.1186/s12939-021-01566-4
8
Witteveen D . Sociodemographic Inequality in Exposure to COVID-19-Induced Economic Hardship in the United Kingdom. Res Soc Stratif Mobil (2020) 69:100551. 10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100551
9
Witteveen D Velthorst E . Economic Hardship and Mental Health Complaints during COVID-19. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2020) 117(44):27277–84. 10.1073/pnas.2009609117
10
Hrzic R Peixoto VR Mason-Jones AJ McCallum A ASPHER COVID-19 Task Force. Is it Really Time to Ditch the Mask?BMJ (2022) 377:o1186. 10.1136/bmj.o1186
11
Català M Li X Prats C Prieto-Alhambra D . The Impact of Prioritisation and Dosing Intervals on the Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination in Europe: an Agent-Based Cohort Model. Sci Rep (2021) 11(1):18812. 10.1038/s41598-021-98216-0
12
Nafilyan V Dolby T Razieh C Gaughan CH Morgan J Ayoubkhani D et al Sociodemographic Inequality in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Among Elderly Adults in England: a National Linked Data Study. BMJ Open (2021) 11(7):e053402. 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053402
13
Binagwaho A Mathewos K Davis S . Time for the Ethical Management of COVID-19 Vaccines. Lancet Glob Health (2021) 9(8):e1169–e1171. 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00180-7
14
Wagner CE Saad-Roy CM Morris SE Baker RE Mina MJ Farrar J et al Vaccine Nationalism and the Dynamics and Control of SARS-CoV-2. Science (2021) 373(6562):eabj7364. 10.1126/science.abj7364
15
Wagner CE Saad-Roy CM Grenfell BT . Modelling Vaccination Strategies for COVID-19. Nat Rev Immunol (2022) 22(3):139–41. 10.1038/s41577-022-00687-3
16
Wouters OJ Shadlen KC Salcher-Konrad M Pollard AJ Larson HJ Teerawattananon Y et al Challenges in Ensuring Global Access to COVID-19 Vaccines: Production, Affordability, Allocation, and Deployment. Lancet (2021) 397(10278):1023–34. 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00306-8
17
World Federation of Public Health Associations. Statement on COVID-19 Immunization and Equitable Access to Vaccines (2021). Available at: https://www.wfpha.org/statement-on-covid-19/ (Accessed September 23, 2022).
18
Goldberg Y Mandel M Bar-On YM Bodenheimer O Freedman L Haas EJ et al Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel. N Engl J Med (2021) 385(24):e85. 10.1056/NEJMoa2114228
19
Flaxman S Mishra S Gandy A Unwin HJT Mellan TA Coupland H et al Estimating the Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature (2020) 584(7820):257–61. 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
20
Haug N Geyrhofer L Londei A Dervic E Desvars-Larrive A Loreto V et al Ranking the Effectiveness of Worldwide COVID-19 Government Interventions. Nat Hum Behav (2020) 4(12):1303–12. 10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0
21
Sharma M Mindermann S Rogers-Smith C Leech G Snodin B Ahuja J et al Understanding the Effectiveness of Government Interventions against the Resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. Nat Commun (2021) 12(1):5820. 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4
22
de Campos-Rudinsky TC Undurraga E . Public Health Decisions in the COVID-19 Pandemic Require More Than ‘follow the Science. J Med Ethics (2021) 2020:107134. 10.1136/medethics-2020-107134
23
Hodges R Caperchione E van Helden J Reichard C Sorrentino D . The Role of Scientific Expertise in COVID-19 Policy-Making: Evidence from Four European Countries. Public Organiz Rev (2022) 22(2):249–67. 10.1007/s11115-022-00614-z
24
Vickery J Atkinson P Lin L Rubin O Upshur R Yeoh EK et al Challenges to Evidence-Informed Decision-Making in the Context of Pandemics: Qualitative Study of COVID-19 Policy Advisor Perspectives. BMJ Glob Health (2022) 7(4):e008268. 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-008268
25
Baker MG Wilson N Anglemyer A . Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand. N Engl J Med (2020) 383:e56. 10.1056/NEJMc2025203
26
Alwan NA . Surveillance Is Underestimating the burden of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Lancet (2020) 396(10252):e24. 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31823-7
27
Rocco P Rich JAJ Klasa K Dubin KA Béland D . Who Counts where? COVID-19 Surveillance in Federal Countries. J Health Polit Pol L (2021) 46(6):959–87. 10.1215/03616878-9349114
28
Karanikolos M McKee M . How Comparable Is COVID-19 Mortality across Countries?Eurohealth (2020) 26(2):45–50.
29
Mina MJ Andersen KG . COVID-19 Testing: One Size Does Not Fit All. Science (2021) 371(6525):126–7. 10.1126/science.abe9187
30
Shah S Gwee SXW Ng JQX Lau N Koh J Pang J . Wastewater Surveillance to Infer COVID-19 Transmission: A Systematic Review. Sci Total Environ (2022) 804:150060. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150060
31
Robishaw JD Alter SM Solano JJ Shih RD DeMets DL Maki DG et al Genomic Surveillance to Combat COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities. Lancet Microbe (2021) 2(9):e481–e484. 10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00121-X
32
Wee LE Sim XYJ Conceicao EP Aung MK Goh JQ Yeo DWT et al Containment of COVID-19 Cases Among Healthcare Workers: The Role of Surveillance, Early Detection, and Outbreak Management. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol (2020) 41(7):765–71. 10.1017/ice.2020.219
33
Harawa NT Amani B Abotsi-Kowu C Nwankwo E Ford CL . Using COVID-19 Surveillance Systems to Identify and Monitor Disparities: Best Practices and Recommendations. Ethn Dis (2022) 32(2):151–64. 10.18865/ed.32.2.151
34
Ward H Flower B Garcia PJ Ong SWX Altmann DM Delaney B et al Global Surveillance, Research, and Collaboration Needed to Improve Understanding and Management of Long COVID. Lancet (2021) 398(10316):2057–9. 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02444-2
35
World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Operational Considerations for Respiratory Virus Surveillance in Europe (2022). Available at: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Operational-considerations-respiratory-virus-surveillance-euro-2022.pdf (Accessed September 23, 2022).
36
Martín-Delgado MC Martín Sánchez FJ Martínez-Sellés M Molero Garcia JM Moreno Guillen S Rodriguez-Artalejo FJ et al Monkeypox in Humans: a New Outbreak. Rev Esp Quimioter (2022) 2022:martin06jul2022. 10.37201/req/059.2022
37
Dhanasekaran V Sullivan S Edwards KM Xie R Khvorov A Valkenburg SA et al Human Seasonal Influenza under COVID-19 and the Potential Consequences of Influenza Lineage Elimination. Nat Commun (2022) 13(1):1721. 10.1038/s41467-022-29402-5
Summary
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, winter planning, equity, vaccination policy, evidence informed policy, trust, enhanced surveillance
Citation
Hrzic R, Davidovitch N, Barros H, Lopes H, Moreno JMM, Mason-Jones AJ, McCallum A, Reid J, Reintjes R, Sheek-Hussein M, Simon J, Wong BLH, Leighton L, Otok R, Middleton J and ASPHER (2022) ASPHER Statement: Facing the Fourth Winter of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Public Health Rev 43:1605395. doi: 10.3389/phrs.2022.1605395
Received
14 September 2022
Accepted
20 September 2022
Published
03 October 2022
Approved by
Sarah Mantwill, University of Lucerne, Switzerland
Volume
43 - 2022
Updates
Copyright
© 2022 Hrzic, Davidovitch, Barros, Lopes, Moreno, Mason-Jones, McCallum, Reid, Reintjes, Sheek-Hussein, Simon, Wong, Leighton, Otok, Middleton and ASPHER.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. PHR is edited by the Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+) in a partnership with the Association of Schools of Public Health of the European Region (ASPHER)+
*Correspondence: Nadav Davidovitch, nadavd@bgu.ac.il
Disclaimer
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.